In This Issue
A Rare Gift
Unify the Waikato
Te Huia Patronage Fails in 2025 - Is it Terminal this Time?
Economic Prediction Making and Optimism
A Rare Gift
In times of crisis, communities pull together. Our coastal communities have had a blasting from rain, slips and lives lost. For most of us in the Waikato who are unaffected directly by the events there is little we can do while others grieve and struggle.
What we can do is support by spending.
Get to the Coromandel, Waihi Beach, Port Waikato and over to Tauranga and Mount Maunganui and spend a little with the businesses there. Your cash multiplied by everyone else buying from businesses in those communities hit by the disasters flows through a community like a blood transfusion.
It is a transfusion that is transformational. It signals we are standing with those badly affected and it genuinely re-invigorates a community that has been thumped. It doesn’t take much, but a visit, a purchase and a smile signifies that we are with you, and that means the world to those struggling with recent events.
You can also donate to the Momentum Waikato Coromandel Peninsula Recovery Appeal on their website - select COROMANDEL PENINSULA RECOVERY APPEAL.
Unify the Waikato
The Government is going to simplify councils. Wellington, Southland and Northland regions are all in the process of unifying. Auckland has done it and ironed out many of the issues that concern a reduction in democracy and the diminution of the voice of smaller communities.
2026 will see the Waikato attempt to do the same. There will be petty leaders that will fight against it, but there are savings, efficiencies, simplicities, and leverage benefits from being unified.
Those regions that unify will have far greater pull with central government than a split and disparate Waikato.
It is time to rub out all the pencil lines on a map that divide us and use the boundaries that unify us the natural geographic and geological barriers that define the Waikato region.
The Waikato will be stronger together for it.
Te Huia Patronage Fails in 2025 - Is it Terminal this Time?
Te Huia’s patronage in 2025 has been a disaster. The historical passenger numbers do not lie.
2022: 59,369
2023: 69,406
2024: 86,077
and 2025 it dropped like a stone to 64,870.
Analysis by the Waikato Times in May 2024 had total subsidy per passenger to be $26 for the Manawatu to Wellington Capital Connection route and $92 for Hamilton to Auckland on Te Huia. NZTA is due to review Te Huia in February. Their alternatives include reducing their subsidy or closing the trial.
Te Huia is being kept alive by mainlining off your tax and rates. It is only used by a decreasing but vociferous crowd who believe taxpayers and ratepayers should fund their train fares.
Te Huia had 64,870 passengers in 2025. The Expressway averages over 25,000 passengers per day so its patronage exceeds Te Huia’s in three days. In terms of service for those that do not drive, the privately run Intercity buses run 10 times a day from Hamilton to Auckland with fares starting at $20 so there are viable, faster and cheaper alternatives for everyone.
The Waikato electorate voted in Rates Control Councillors. To avoid a clear charge of a backflip and early failure to deliver on their promises, they need to do what the electorate voted them in for. Stop the project and save ratepayers and taxpayers a lot of money. Tax money that could be spent on hospitals, health, schools, and education.
The Te Huia passenger numbers have proven the concept of passenger rail between Hamilton and Auckland to be a failure. The numbers show the demand is not there. Trains are great for freight but do not work for public transport and become an open drain on ratepayers and taxpayers’ pockets.
At a time when we are all struggling with the cost of living, can we afford such a luxury?
Economic Prediction Making and Optimism
Economists and journalists who look back at the six-month-old Statistics NZ GDP figures to predict the future can be likened to people sitting in the boot of a car looking at a point several kilometres behind, then telling those who are driving the economy where to go.
With their reliance on six-month-old GDP data, are economists and the news media making us all anxious and depressed?
A week doesn’t go by without an economist extrapolating a data point and pontificating on how badly New Zealand is doing. It makes for depressing reading, especially when journalists amplify with article after article on how everything is a disaster.
We have a growing range of economic indicators that update far more quickly than GDP figures, such as real-time electronic card spending, job ads, freight volumes, business sentiment surveys, and even anonymised payment-processing data. When interpreted together, these provide a more up-to-date picture of what is happening on the ground for businesses, households, and exporters.
We also have the benefit of increasingly sophisticated forecasting tools and more transparent communication from both central and local government. By combining forward-looking indicators with real industry insights, we can build a more accurate, timely understanding of where the economy is heading. The more business and community leaders contribute their data, experiences, and expectations, the better our collective ability becomes to predict change early and respond constructively.
We know that New Zealand businesses are feeling a great deal more optimistic about 2026. The latest NZIER Quarterly survey of business opinion shows a substantial increase in business confidence. With nearly 40% of firms expecting conditions to improve, this is being reflected in business intentions to increase investments in new projects and hire more staff.
The recovery is looking more real, farm balance sheets have improved significantly with farmers being prudent, paying down debt and putting aside a substantial portion for tax. Their farmgate prices continue to be very strong. That flows into our Waikato towns and cities.
In listening to our members, that flow is turning into forward orders in manufacturing, increased construction, along with more activity in services, and crucially, entrepreneurs investing in opportunities that last year they would have passed on.
We see and hear that realistic optimism and have done so for several months. Shifting the narrative from one of doom-scrolling alarmist headlines to that of informed preparation helps everyone.
Regards
Don Good
