New Zealand continues to be well supplied with fuel, but international fuel prices remain high because global markets are still paying a premium to keep crude oil and refined products moving while the Strait of Hormuz remains materially constrained.

For Waikato businesses and families, the message is simple: fuel supply remains secure, but the cost of securing that supply has risen.

We know that is hard. Fuel is not just another line on a spreadsheet in the Waikato. It is the cost of getting milk to factory, stock to sale, goods to customers, staff to work, children to school, and contractors between jobs. It affects farming, dairy, freight, construction, light industry, tradies, and households across the region. Many businesses and families are already dealing with higher costs across the board, and another lift in fuel prices is the last thing anyone needs. At Waitomo, we understand that. We are a 79-year-old, family-owned Waikato business, and we know the pressure higher fuel prices put on the region. Our customers are farmers, transport operators, contractors, tradies, manufacturers, local businesses and families. Our job is to keep fuel moving and keep prices as low as we practically can. That means working hard on supply, staying close to international markets, buying carefully, keeping our sites competitive, and continuing to offer tools that help customers manage their fuel spend.

The current price pressure is not being driven by a shortage in New Zealand. MBIE continues to report that New Zealand is well supplied across petrol, diesel and jet fuel, with stock movements consistent with normal shipping patterns. Importers have confirmed orders through late June, with planned orders extending into early August. At this stage, we do not see a medium-term domestic supply issue.

The challenge sits offshore. The Strait of Hormuz is one of the world’s most important energy routes. When flows through that region are restricted, global markets need to find other ways to move crude oil and refined fuels. That means pulling crude from alternative sources, encouraging refineries to run where they can, and redirecting finished fuel into the regions that need it most. Higher prices are doing that work. In plain English: fuel markets are tight, expensive and volatile — but they are still working.

We can see signs that the Asia-Pacific fuel market is adjusting. Regional refiners are continuing to make diesel, petrol and jet fuel available, and some countries are redirecting supply to where it is most needed. Singapore, which is an important fuel trading hub for our part of the world, is not showing signs of immediate shortage. That does not mean the market is relaxed — prices remain high, and conditions are still volatile — but it does suggest fuel is continuing to move through the system.

The bigger concern is global inventories. The world has been using stored oil and fuel to cover the gap, with the International Energy Agency estimating that observed oil inventories fell by 129 million barrels in March and a further 117 million barrels in April. That has helped keep supply moving, but it cannot continue indefinitely.

The US stock position is also important. US gasoline inventories have now fallen for 13 consecutive weeks, with stocks at their lowest level since late November. Crude and diesel stocks remain under pressure too. The US and broader Atlantic Basin have helped offset lost Gulf supply, but that will require higher crude production, stronger refinery runs, lower demand, or some combination of all three.

Geopolitics remain unresolved. The US reportedly held off renewed action against Iran after intervention from Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the UAE, but peace terms remain unsettled and vessel movements through the Strait of Hormuz are still limited rather than normalised.

The bottom line for Waikato businesses is this: New Zealand can access fuel, but the world is paying more to keep fuel moving around a constrained Middle East system. Until Hormuz flows normalise and global inventory draws slow, diesel and gasoline prices are likely to remain elevated and volatile.

We cannot control global crude prices or geopolitics, but we can control how hard we work for our customers. We will keep focusing on reliable supply, low pump prices, and practical tools that help people manage fuel costs. For households, the Waitomo App can help access sharp pricing and everyday savings. For businesses, Waitomo Commercial cards and Kora provide better visibility, control and reporting around fuel spend, while helping teams access competitive pricing across the network. Tools such as Gaspy can also help compare pump prices by location when every cent per litre matters.

Because geopolitics is such a major driver of fuel costs, the picture can change quickly. Events between writing and reading this may have shifted the market, particularly around the Strait of Hormuz, US-Iran negotiations or global supply routes.

For a more detailed explanation of what is happening in fuel markets, we recently joined the team at Between Two Beers to discuss the current dynamics and what they mean for New Zealand fuel prices.