The year is going fast, and the world is far more complex and uncertain than it was in February.
Here are a few thoughts to challenge your thinking, and to keep you aware of issues that may impact your company.
In This Issue
Export for NZ to win
Simplifying Local Government because savings have to be made
Oil
Election year and the 2026 Budget
Productivity.
Export for NZ to win
We need to export to survive. The success of our agricultural and tech industries over recent months and years has highlighted just how important it is for the country to have our companies selling overseas and bringing in export dollars.
Free trade agreements, however they are called, mean a level playing field and access to overseas markets for our exports. The China FTA has grown into a $40 billion per year market for Kiwi exporters.
The India free trade agreement gives us access to a market of 1.4 billion people. Any Kiwi company would enjoy substantial sales with a fraction of that market, and you won’t find out until you try.
In May, we are hosting three separate delegations looking to buy and sell goods and services, and India will have a pavilion at Fieldays in June. You have a gold-plated opportunity to see this market, meet companies wanting to trade, and government officials keen to see trade happen.
Contact Rob for more details:
Rob.Finlayson@waikatochamber.co.nz
For those of you deterred by the political FTA sideshows, we include a couple of articles that may help you see through the bullswool.
Damien Grant: Reading the NZ-India free trade agreement made my stress levels rise | Stuff
Former Waikato Chamber of Commerce CEO Chris Simpson – a different perspective on the India FTA
Simplifying Local Government because savings have to be made
Sitting on your Mayoral and Councillor hands, procrastinating and not getting local government reform done is no longer an option. Fast track is happening, and those that don’t will go through a government-enforced process. Ministers fast-track local government reform | Stuff
Our local leaders are quiet on their actions to unite Waikato local government. Are they looking to protect their kingdoms or act in the best interests of the ratepayers who simply can no longer afford the artificial boundaries they hide behind?
With their water assets gone or going, we are seeing local councils stripped of many assets and staff. Why there are 11 councils with 11 accounting systems, 11 duplications of staff, systems, and moribund with disparate rules and regulations, separated by simply a line on a map drawn in 1989, no one can answer.
Regional Council rate payers liked the promises that were made by the Rates Control teams to get into power, yet they or a group of them have reneged. As always, we respect someone who changes their mind in the face of compelling new evidence, but they have yet to share the evidence that changed their mind about staying and paying for membership of Local Government NZ.
Here was an opportunity to save ratepayers' money.
Ratepayers are overdue a detailed explanation.
At stake is trust in those we voted for.
Oil
Oil is ubiquitous in our lifestyles at present.
Unless something silly happens, it is a fair call that oil supply will resume at some point. When is another matter. There are too many suppliers who have got rich on oil for the supply to be turned off. The food security for oil security deal with Singapore is very helpful, but the critical issue for businesses and households is price.
If you are trying to budget or reforecast for the F27 financial year, it will pay to be pessimistic. If it all settles down, then wonderful, but Iran is in an existential war with religious fervour, and Trump/USA do not want them to have nuclear missiles, nor does Trump and his government want to lose face.
We are addicted to oil, not only as a fuel, but its derivatives also inhabit every nook and cranny of our lives. Research your supply chains because there will be disruption if it has not been apparent already. Those in the plastics industry are already aware of the consequences.
There are those who are optimistic.
Gwynne Dyer: Why the UAE’s cartel exit will tank oil prices | Waikato Times
Election year and the 2026 Budget
It is time to think about what sort of NZ you want, and it is time for the various parties to get their election policies out.
It is also time for Kiwis to face the reality that governments of whatever political stripe have little room to move, given our debt and poor productivity. The rating agencies are wary of our ability to reduce our debt.
However, Kiwis have got accustomed to governments bailing them out, and perhaps the handouts we received over Covid have caused us, as a nation, to lose some of our ability to be resilient that previous generations may have had.
So far, we seem to be doing okay if we look at the most recent Centrix report, but Sam Stubbs’ article gives you food for thought as you go into the election year.
The 2026 Budget will be a key document, and we are putting on a post-Budget breakfast with Craigs and Westpac to give you some insights and the opportunity to discuss the details and the effect on business.
With a mixed sovereign credit rating from the three ratings agencies, it is fair to say that, as a country, we cannot borrow our way out of recession. That was done and dusted by the Covid government actions, and it is a big debt we must pay back.
Sam Stubbs has summed up NZ problems and offered fixes for debate. His last three paragraphs are a solution for anyone keen on reducing the cost of living in NZ. Neither left nor right: Blending political ideologies to fix NZ’s high cost of living | The Post
We have long been a fan of the Centrix Credit report as a good insight into how well businesses and consumers are doing right now. You will find the April report here Centrix_Credit_Indicator_Report_April_2026_Final.pdf
Welcome to MMP elections. Wayne Brown’s no-nonsense analysis of the current MMP coalition is insightful. Wayne Brown says PM a dog with ‘two tails wagging him’ | Stuff
“One last question Prime Minister.”
This new book by long-time and highly respected parliamentary journalist Barry Soper gives you insight into the strengths and weaknesses of our past leaders and MMP. It is an easy read. History is a definer of leaders and all 12 Prime Ministers since Muldoon had their personal and public crises along with the usual internal party conniptions, many of which Barry was a first-hand observer.
Productivity
2 Degrees have been at the forefront of productivity thought leadership, and they commissioned Deloitte to research the adoption of AI in NZ.
As their Chief Business Officer, Andrew Fairgray stated when he introduced the report, “In the face of the challenges we’re navigating, there’s a real and timely opportunity to use AI as a catalyst for fundamentally changing our operating models. Doing so has the potential to spark innovation, drive meaningful productivity gains, and contribute to economic growth that ultimately benefits communities throughout New Zealand. My analysis points to AI as the necessary intervention for lifting productivity but, as you know, the payoff isn’t automatic. It’s essential that we move the conversation beyond simply adopting AI tools and instead focus on redesigning work with AI at the core.” Productivity Propelled - Impact of AI Adoption.
It is worth the read if it inspires you to accelerate your AI learning. AI is transforming business worldwide.
You need to be up with the play.
